Will this be the holiday season of the $299 Blu-ray player?
Here's a leading indicator: Sony says it will have Blu-ray players priced at $399, possibly lower, during the holidays.
Already some Blu-ray players are in the $350-to-$400 range, while the competing HD-DVD spec is flirting with $199 and $99 price points.
Sony's cheapest, the BDP-S300, is about $410 to $420 with aggressive pricing.
" That means Sony will take action to get the price of its least expensive player that low.
If Sony gets to $375, competitors can do $325, and if they can do $325, a couple of stores will look to the magical $299 price point.
Today, Sony Electronics president Stan Glasgow said, "[Sony] Blu-ray will be down to $399 and slightly below that, but not much lower.
My projection of a $299 Blu-ray player before Christmas is based on this reasoning: Other brands can undercut well-known Sony by $25 to $50 a unit.
Other Blu-ray players typically run $400 to $1,200 now.
(Though that's not as magical as $199.) Not bad for a product category that came to market in mid-2006.
And will such a low price usher in mass acceptance of high-definition video discs?
Six months ago, it was $600.
A prime customer for microdisplays will be the person with an expensive AV cabinet who's happier with a 50- to 60-inch microdisplay TV costing $1,500 to $2,500 than a 5-inch-deep plasma or LCD that costs twice as much for the same screen size.
But HD camcorders need to come down from their $1,000-to-$1,200 entry pricing, which means holiday 2008 will be the breakout year for high-def video recording.
Meanwhile, Wal-Mart electrified the consumer electronics industry by starting Black Friday-style pricing--those low sale prices the day after Thanksgiving--at the end of October.
If you shop, know this: Blu-ray has the lead in supporting vendors, titles, and sales, but the war is not yet over.
Some Blu-ray players out this fall will not support the enhanced BD 1.1 profile that includes a second video decoder for picture-in-picture (important to users);
a second audio decoder for, say, the director's commentary (important to directors);
Glasgow made his comments at a semi-annual briefing for editors and analysts in New York.
"It's not a mainstream TV," Glasgow notes, at $1,800 for an 11-inch display.
It's offering the entry level Toshiba HD-A2 HD DVD player that does 720p but not 1080p for $198, a $100 reduction, and via an online "secret promotion" (not so secret, I guess).
Sony believes sales of microdisplay TVs (rear projection sets using DLP or tiny LCD projection engines) may be off 70 percent this holiday season.
Sony sees less interest in plasma TVs this fall--but then, Sony bailed on the business (plasma king Panasonic may think otherwise).
Other news from the conference:
Sony's OLED TV, now sold in Japan in very limited quantities, has no U.S.
Doesn't hurt that Sony has backed away from the death-by-DRM-and-Memory-Stick features of earlier music players.
The bulk of buyers are travelers.
Some students are buying in, but to date there are few textbooks (and it's a monochrome unit).
Some not all 1.1 features can be added via firmware upgrade.
Sony's $300 e-book Reader will have enhanced PDF support in January, and current models will be upgradeable.
Apparently it's easier to believe Sony finally has a credible iPod killer--well, challenger--when you see it in person.
The iPod nano competitor NWZ-A818 ($180 street for 8GB) is picking up momentum, especially among in-person shoppers.
Also, know what you're giving up with the entry models.
You could be stuck with the loser.
He sees OLEDs with their bright, low-energy consumption being valuable on cell phones and PDAs.
The biggest surprise, Glasgow says, is how much readers like being able to switch genres as their moods change.
, those with lots of sales potential) as digital imaging, LCD TV, home video including high-def camcorders, desktop PCs, and notebook PCs.
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